← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Wed, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 52% | 52% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 22% | 24% | 4.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2024.00 | 655.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1539.56 | 1717.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.84 | 15.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| league points | 51.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.97 |
| state index | -0.42 | 1.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |