← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 44% | 55% | 2.05 | value: +13% |
| Vitesse win | 28% | 23% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 3025.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1549.86 | 1479.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.96 | 11.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 43.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.34 |
| state index | 0.81 | -0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |