← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 75% | 73% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 25% | 5.50 | value: +35% |
| Heracles win | 8% | 2% | 12.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1375.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1728.22 | 1430.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.31 | 20.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| league points | 65.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 7.96 |
| season ppg | 2.10 | 1.03 |
| state index | 0.72 | -0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |