← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 40% | 34% | 2.30 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 32% | 25% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 41% | 3.25 | value: +33% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2014.00 | 2836.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1550.55 | 1575.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.61 | 14.59 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| league points | 51.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.96 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.84 |
| state index | -0.27 | 0.61 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |