← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sat, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 46% | 53% | 2.00 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.30 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 27% | 21% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3017.00 | 1740.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1466.60 | 1432.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.88 | 16.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| league points | 40.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.00 |
| state index | -0.59 | -0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |