← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Mar 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 44% | 41% | 2.10 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 28% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 33% | 3.25 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1734.00 | 3925.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1434.24 | 1423.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.02 | 9.61 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 30.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |