← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Mar 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 48% | 60% | 1.95 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 25% | 16% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1003.00 | 3011.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1543.82 | 1473.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.07 | -13.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 33.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 8.96 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.33 |
| state index | -0.70 | -0.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |