← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sat, Mar 29, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 38% | 41% | 2.50 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 34% | 36% | 2.90 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1367.00 | 1002.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1428.77 | 1551.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.48 | -28.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 31.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.43 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |