← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Mar 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 44% | 38% | 2.10 | fair |
| Heracles win | 28% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3918.00 | 1361.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1414.19 | 1437.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.86 | 36.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 24.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.07 |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |