← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Mar 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 39% | 42% | 2.40 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 33% | 37% | 2.80 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 27% | 21% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 631.00 | 631.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1622.01 | 1708.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.77 | 23.28 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| league points | 49.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.97 |
| state index | 0.77 | 1.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |