← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sat, Mar 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 66% | 71% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 17% | 4.20 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 12% | 12% | 8.50 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1999.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1724.60 | 1560.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.90 | 5.87 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| league points | 61.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.10 | 1.72 |
| state index | 0.72 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |