← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Fri, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 36% | 40% | 2.65 | value: +6% |
| NAC Breda win | 36% | 31% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3002.00 | 2820.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1472.10 | 1563.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.93 | 2.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 39.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.83 |
| state index | -0.41 | 0.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |