← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Wed, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 44% | 27% | 2.15 | fair |
| AFC Ajax win | 29% | 25% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 48% | 3.40 | value: +64% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 627.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1726.87 | 1706.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.84 | 8.65 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| league points | 60.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 2.00 |
| state index | 0.87 | 1.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |