← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 43% | 36% | 2.20 | fair |
| AZ win | 30% | 45% | 3.10 | value: +39% ⚠ |
| Draw | 27% | 19% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 989.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1514.31 | 1548.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.87 | -39.21 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| league points | 38.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.11 |
| state index | -0.27 | -0.86 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |