← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 47% | 39% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 36% | 3.50 | value: +25% |
| Roda JC win | 26% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 989.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1554.66 | 1730.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.48 | -7.98 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.65 |
| league points | 42.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.19 |
| state index | 0.11 | 1.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |