← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 57% | 63% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.75 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 18% | 14% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1720.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1508.89 | 1430.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 53.97 | 7.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.91 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 33.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 0.96 |
| state index | 0.68 | -0.48 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |