← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 75% | 84% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 12% | 5.50 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 8% | 3% | 13.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 624.00 | 3911.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1702.48 | 1418.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.77 | 3.45 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| league points | 53.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.96 | 0.86 |
| state index | 1.38 | -0.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |