← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Fri, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 39% | 28% | 2.50 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 33% | 42% | 2.80 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1991.00 | 1352.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1570.25 | 1639.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.93 | -14.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 2.02 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| league points | 50.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.71 |
| state index | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |