← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 41% | 37% | 2.25 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 31% | 24% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 39% | 3.40 | value: +33% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1713.00 | 982.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1407.45 | 1577.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.55 | 25.48 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| league points | 24.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.56 |
| state index | -0.77 | 0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |