← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sat, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 37% | 36% | 2.60 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 35% | 32% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.25 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3903.00 | 1985.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1426.28 | 1562.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.34 | -5.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 24.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.74 |
| state index | -0.31 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |