← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sat, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 49% | 59% | 1.91 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 25% | 17% | 3.80 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1346.00 | 2807.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1662.86 | 1596.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.99 | 21.84 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| league points | 45.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.85 |
| state index | 0.57 | 0.85 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |