← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sat, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 41% | 38% | 2.20 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 31% | 32% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 2989.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1378.74 | 1495.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.94 | -23.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| league points | 23.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.33 |
| state index | -0.42 | -0.72 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |