← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Fri, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 41% | 36% | 2.37 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 32% | 34% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1345.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1425.83 | 1525.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.17 | -14.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 27.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.41 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |