← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 53% | 68% | 1.80 | value: +22% ⚠ |
| Draw | 26% | 14% | 3.60 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 21% | 18% | 4.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1502.99 | 1752.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -55.59 | 31.34 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.70 |
| league points | 35.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 2.27 |
| state index | -0.59 | 1.64 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |