← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 67% | 74% | 1.40 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 21% | 19% | 4.33 | fair |
| Heracles win | 13% | 7% | 8.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1979.00 | 1340.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1578.16 | 1410.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.43 | 15.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 47.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 0.92 |
| state index | 0.68 | -0.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |