← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 79% | 85% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 12% | 7.00 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 7% | 3% | 15.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 610.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1698.69 | 1378.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.87 | 26.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| league points | 50.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 0.88 |
| state index | 0.99 | -0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |