← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sat, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 40% | 47% | 2.40 | value: +13% |
| SC Heerenveen win | 34% | 27% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 609.00 | 1339.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1596.57 | 1636.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.58 | 5.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 2.11 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| league points | 40.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.73 |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.62 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |