← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sat, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 45% | 44% | 2.10 | fair |
| AZ win | 29% | 35% | 3.30 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 974.00 | 974.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1579.86 | 1557.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.92 | -40.26 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| league points | 41.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.15 |
| state index | 0.39 | -0.85 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |