← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sat, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 62% | 68% | 1.53 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.10 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 16% | 9% | 6.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2800.00 | 1705.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1561.35 | 1415.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.14 | -1.91 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 47.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 0.92 |
| state index | 0.52 | -0.62 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |