← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 46% | 47% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +6% |
| NAC Breda win | 27% | 22% | 3.80 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2794.00 | 603.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1569.62 | 1690.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 55.30 | -18.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 2.01 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| league points | 47.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.88 |
| state index | 0.90 | 0.54 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |