← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sat, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 40% | 35% | 2.25 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 32% | 39% | 2.90 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2975.00 | 967.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1513.97 | 1615.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.79 | -5.97 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| league points | 35.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| state index | -0.45 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |