← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sat, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 52% | 48% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
| Heracles win | 21% | 27% | 4.33 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1332.00 | 267.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1433.24 | 1644.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.51 | -2.38 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 23.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.88 |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |