← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sat, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 41% | 42% | 2.25 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 32% | 38% | 3.10 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 27% | 20% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 967.00 | 602.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1557.89 | 1595.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -64.87 | -53.32 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 29.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.56 |
| state index | -0.88 | -0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |