← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Fri, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 39% | 42% | 2.40 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 34% | 30% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1697.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1404.22 | 1514.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.54 | -51.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 21.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 1.40 |
| state index | -0.70 | -0.84 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |