← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 46% | 58% | 2.00 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 27% | 19% | 3.40 | fair |
| AZ win | 27% | 23% | 3.80 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1965.00 | 961.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1554.63 | 1566.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.96 | -71.42 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| league points | 41.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.21 |
| state index | 0.18 | -0.95 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |