← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sat, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 61% | 64% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.75 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 14% | 15% | 7.00 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3882.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1417.05 | 1745.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.71 | 29.03 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.75 |
| league points | 20.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 2.21 |
| state index | 0.03 | 1.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |