← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sat, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 57% | 62% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.60 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 17% | 18% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1476.03 | 1365.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 52.43 | 16.55 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 24.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.79 |
| state index | 0.39 | -0.62 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |