← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Fri, Feb 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 78% | 76% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 18% | 6.50 | value: +20% |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 7% | 6% | 15.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 594.00 | 1690.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1685.70 | 1408.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.86 | 5.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| league points | 44.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 0.88 |
| state index | 0.62 | -0.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |