← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 48% | 54% | 1.95 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.40 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 25% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 954.00 | 589.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| elo | 1554.18 | 1698.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -51.19 | -9.16 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| league points | 34.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.91 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.61 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |