← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 40% | 58% | 2.25 | value: +30% ⚠ |
| NEC win | 32% | 26% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 16% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 954.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1454.92 | 1587.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.74 | -68.61 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| league points | 21.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.26 |
| state index | -0.05 | -0.88 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |