← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sat, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 38% | 31% | 2.55 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 35% | 40% | 2.62 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2961.00 | 1957.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1481.33 | 1565.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.90 | 4.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| league points | 32.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.78 |
| state index | -0.42 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |