← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sat, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 57% | 60% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 17% | 3.80 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 18% | 23% | 5.75 | value: +33% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1318.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1749.71 | 1654.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.28 | 49.65 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 2.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.75 | 0.55 |
| league points | 52.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.26 | 1.87 |
| state index | 1.40 | 1.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |