← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Fri, Feb 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 69% | 79% | 1.35 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 20% | 15% | 5.00 | fair |
| Heracles win | 11% | 6% | 11.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 587.00 | 1317.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1606.61 | 1404.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.63 | 27.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 36.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 0.96 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |