← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Wed, Feb 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 40% | 40% | 2.45 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 32% | 33% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1681.00 | 2776.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1431.00 | 1544.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.61 | 48.68 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 21.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.73 |
| state index | 0.11 | 0.74 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |