← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sun, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 47% | 61% | 1.95 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 26% | 13% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1951.00 | 947.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1567.46 | 1552.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.86 | -48.16 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.40 |
| league points | 40.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.50 |
| state index | 0.70 | -0.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |