← Eredivisie 2007-08 · Sat, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 43% | 45% | 2.10 | fair |
| AZ win | 30% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 946.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| elo | 1599.28 | 1738.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -50.07 | 25.42 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| league points | 29.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 2.23 |
| state index | -0.46 | 1.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |