← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 55% | 75% | 1.65 | value: +24% ⚠ |
| Draw | 25% | 13% | 3.60 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 20% | 12% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 302.00 | 2493.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1607.97 | 1453.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.82 | -34.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 63.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.30 |
| state index | 0.23 | -1.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |