← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 68% | 69% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 24% | 4.50 | value: +10% |
| Heracles win | 12% | 6% | 8.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 667.00 | 1032.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1557.79 | 1424.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.19 | 40.14 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| league points | 51.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 0.97 |
| state index | 0.48 | -0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |