← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 79% | 80% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 11% | 7.00 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 7% | 9% | 12.00 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 2675.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1703.27 | 1458.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.70 | -4.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| league points | 72.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.18 | 1.15 |
| state index | 0.46 | -0.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |