← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 62% | 83% | 1.50 | value: +24% ⚠ |
| Draw | 24% | 11% | 3.75 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 15% | 6% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 6876.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1477.97 | 1318.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.88 | -34.59 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 41.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 0.52 |
| state index | -0.38 | -2.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |